Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance, and Biometric Authentication

All the data was out there to warn us of this impending attack, why didn't we see it?` This was a frequently asked question in the weeks and months after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. In the wake of the attacks, statisticians moved quickly to become part of the national response to the global war on terror. This book is an overview of the emerging research program at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. A wide range of talented researchers address issues in

- Syndromic Surveillance---How do we detect and recognize bioterrorist events?

- Modeling and Simulation---How do we better understand and explain complex processes so that decision makers can take the best course of action?

- Biometric Authentication---How do we pick the terrorist out of the crowd of faces or better match the passport to the traveler?

- Game Theory---How do we understand the rules that terrorists are playing by?

This book includes technical treatments of statistical issues that will be of use to quantitative researchers as well as more general examinations of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism that will be accessible to decision makers with stronger policy backgrounds.

Dr. Alyson G. Wilson is a statistician and the technical lead for DoD programs in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Gregory D. Wilson is a rhetorician and ethnographer in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. David H. Olwell is chair of the Department of Systems Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.

User review
introduction of statistics into the determination of strategy against terrorism
After the 9/11 terrorist attack using commercial airplanes to crash into the pentagon and the world trade center buildings, statisticians among other found their way into developing tools to deal with the such problems. This book is an edited volume of of statistical researchers effort at solving some specific problems addressing potential terrorist attacks and finding ways to prevent future occurrences. Of the topics included are 1. game theory and risk taking, 2. biometric authentication (a pattern recognition technique for matching signatures, 3. matching faces for identification of terriorists using fake identification, 4. and DNA among other things.

Many well known statisticians from RAND, the Naval Postgraduate School, the National Institute of Science and Technology, Los Alamos National Laboratory and some academic institutions present papers on a variety of topics including game theory, biometric authentification, aggregated algorithms, syndromic surveillance, pattern recognition, simulation studies and other counterterrorism approaches.

This book is the first of its kind and it really shows how statistics can play a major role as analytic tools for counterterrorism.

User review
very subjective tests
The book has a compelling usage. How can we use statistics to find advance warning of terrorists and their intents? The book does have fascinating examples of data mining techniques. The problem is that with only one exception, they are highly speculative. Few of these can give a definitive indicator. Very subjective. The efficacy might be questioned.

The exception is where the book deals with biometrics. Here, there is within reason, an objective test of whether a person passes a biometric test or not. In other words, is a person indeed this person whose biometric data has been earlier recorded. This has use, in cases where we might validate that a person has been prescreened, and can thus now perhaps bypass some current tests. The problem in the context of terrorism, is when a terrorist has not been diagnosed as such. Then all the biometric tests can do is say that a person has a valid id, for example. Given this, terrorist groups can be expected to recruit new people and sleepers, in part to nullify any biometric tests.

The book is a commendable effort to tackle a dangerous and ongoing problem. But readers should be cautioned not to put too much store in its methods.